Calculating the Value and Impact of Accelerated Approvals: Final Findings
• The Accelerated Approval (AA) pathway was implemented to help fight AIDs/HIV and has largely been considered a success in addressing areas of high unmet medical needs. However, there is growing sentiment from some payers, academics, and state and federal policymakers that the pathway needs to be significantly altered or restrictions applied to drugs approved through the accelerated approval pathway
• For most of the orphan conditions currently lacking treatment in the US, each condition impacts a maximum of 330 people – an incidence rate less than 1/1,000,000. Substantial changes to the accelerated approval pathway will likely render the potential development of these therapies to treat many rare diseases economically untenable
• The Accelerated Approval therapies’ relative impact on state Medicaid budgets is minimal with an average of one-half of one percent, 0.5%, across all 50 US states and DC
• A three-year delay in Medicaid access in 100% of states would result in roughly 19% – 43% of our therapies having a negative NPV which would therefore render development unlikely
• Revenue reductions have the consequence of increasing risks for developers/investors – even though Medicaid therapies are highly discounted, large revenue reductions do increase the likelihood of fewer therapies being introduced to the market under the Accelerated Approval pathway